More teasing! Give me all the drills! I’m not even kidding. When the Cubs have a high pick, I’ll read every mock draft I can get my hands on. There are FIVE to enter today, with only two days left for the first and second rounds…
I’d be surprised if Johnson tops this spot, but he also has a lot of potential landing spots before here. It looks like Collier’s most likely homes among the top 10 picks are No. 4 for Pittsburgh, No. 7 for the Cubs or No. 8 for the Twins. Those have been the most aggressively linked to the 17-year-old juco.
If both Collier and Johnson are off the board, I’m assuming the Cubs take whoever lands on them or grab Jacob Berry.
- Bonus dart throws for later BA picks? California HS OF Henry Bolte, and Illinois HS LHP Noah Schultz (reported to be a tough/expensive poster).
- Something out of place to point out about the BA mock and broader implications: College shortstop Zach Neto is ranked 18th, with a cap value of just under $3.6 million. Many offer Neto as the Cubs’ backup plan at seven if their preferred target isn’t there and/or they like Neto almost as much as the “top seven” player still on the board. In that situation, the Cubs would be signing Neto below the slot so they could target an expensive pick that fell (say, a Schultz guy). So it’s useful to know how Net might go under the slot, because that’s how much bonus space he would have available to use in another pick. If this is his floor, then, and the Cubs’ spot at No. 7 is $5.7 million, it looks like they could have a good chunk under the spot. And with an extra, say, $1.5 million to use on later picks, it’s very conceivable that they could land another “first-round” talent. So it’s a bit like re-trading: think of it like swapping 7s for 15s and 30s. Maybe it’s worth it, maybe it’s not. It depends on how the chips fall against the Cubs.
- Kiley McDaniel’s Third Drill on ESPN has Jacob Berry slipping into the top five picks, meaning the Cubs have two of the “top seven” options available to them in Elijah Green and Brooks Lee, with the Cubs going to Green: “As you may have noticed, Green does some level. sense and is in the mix for almost every team before this one. He has possibly the highest upside of any draft prospect he’s ever seen, but also some worrying miss rates in the exhibition game. There’s a big gap between the floor and the ceiling and if he gets past this pick, I think the most likely landing spot is over the Mets’ spot at the No. 11 pick, which is as far as he could fall.”
- McDaniel mentions Zach Neto and Connor Prielipp as options below the gap for the Cubs, who he hears are hoping for Cam Collier or Termarr Johnson. They’re not on the board yet, so he picks Green based on too much backhand to pass. (That’s how I would feel, too, if the chart fell this way. I still doubt Green is REALLY going to slide, but if he’s there at seven, I hope the Cubs seriously consider him. Rare superstar on the up.)
- If Green starts to slide and makes it to the Cubs, something to watch out for: There are rumors that Green’s bonus demand is substantial, which could be about sliding to the Mets in the 11th, where they could offer him a huge bonus already. who also have the 14th overall pick. So if the Cubs pick Green, they may have to trade his aggressiveness (in terms of cost) in the second and third rounds, and they may not be able to take a lot of guys in the extra slot in rounds 11 to 20.
- McDaniel Bond? He has a scoop on a second-round target: “I think they’d like to have Carson Whisenhunt on his second pick.” That sounds terribly specific. If the name sounds familiar, it’s because he looked like a top pitching prospect in this draft before the season … before he was suspended for the year by PED. He said the positive test came from a supplement she bought at a nutrition store. He apparently looked good in the Cape Cod League after he finished his college season. Between his compositions? Jordan Wicks, whom the Cubs selected in the first round of the draft last year (and who just took the hit to Double-A!). Whisenhunt is usually classified as a first-round back, so he could cost a little more than a spot to sign if he actually makes it to the Cubs’ second-round pick.
- Another odd note you pick up on McDaniel’s mock: Neto is seen by many as a much better talent than where he ends up in many mocks (McDaniel places him 12th in the class, but he’s not picked until 16th). I mention it because updated draft of FanGraphs prospect rankings have Neto at FIVE(!), ranked ahead of Kevin Parada, Cam Collier and Elijah Green, among many others. As I’ve said, it’s not entirely possible that the Cubs (or any other team) fell in love with Neto’s production and metrics, and weren’t put off by the level of competition he faced. The way I see it being discussed out there in the last few weeks… it just has the feeling of a guy who ends up being picked long before the simulacra had him, and maybe even by a team no one thought was behind the. I’ve seen this play before.
- The Prospects Live final mock also has a Green slip (Jacob Berry goes to the Marlins at six), but this time Termarr Johnson is still on the board for the Cubs, and it is difficult to see that they do not take it if it is there: “Johnson slides to pick seven in this mock, though he also fits better than this in pick four for Pittsburgh. We’ve heard from numerous sources that the Pirates prefer Collier to Johnson, so that’s the route we’re taking here.”
- One more time, we heard about the backup plan for the Cubs of Prospects Live: “If things get crazy and no one [Johnson nor Collier] is available, Campbell shortstop Zach Neto is also wanted by the Cubs. Also worth monitoring, according to some in the industry, if the ‘right player’ isn’t available for the Cubs here, they may be looking to make a pretty significant deal below the slot and proceed with quantity over quality (at least according to industry board standards) approach the rest of the way.” If the Cubs really like Neto, then that’s fine with me. But like I said, since there’s a top tier of seven prospects and the Cubs pick seven, at least ONE of those guys is guaranteed to be on the board for the Cubs. So going this route means the Cubs just don’t like that guy, whoever he ends up being, much more than Neto (or Prielipp). If the savings are big enough, and if the confidence is strong enough that they can get their preferred “first round” targets in the second and/or later, then I wouldn’t do it. hatred it’s.
- Y the final CBS mockup it’s a bit different than the others, with Kevin Parada the guy who slides. But the Cubs go with Brooks Lee, whom CBS ranks as the second-best prospect in the draft, behind only Druw Jones. I don’t have a good idea how the Cubs rate Lee, who seems to have really polarized views. Some have him in the top two or three in the draft, and others have him last in that group of the top seven.
- Lastly, I want to share Northside Bound Final Drill, because Greg Zumach has always had a good read on the Cubs’ draft approach. He has them opting for Zach Neto, mainly because, in his opinion, they see him as the better choice there, rather than just a slot saving machine. The Cubs pass both Elijah Green and Brooks Lee in favor of Neto: “Anyone who doubts Zach Neto should take a look at his excellent production (in college and at the Cape in a limited sample), batted ball data, defensive projection and its make-up. . He checks a number of boxes on all of those fronts. For this reason, he is the pick in this drill, though I don’t think the Cubs are locked in on any player coming in on Sunday. The relative space savings of this pick would allow the Cubs to aggressively add surrounding talent in later rounds. Although he can come as a substitute, Neto is well worth the selection regardless.”
- A parting thought: imagine you were picking seven, and you had Green and Neto right there on the board for you. Your models give Green a 20% chance to be a SUPER star and an 80% chance to be completely busted. Meanwhile, you have Neto with a 50% chance of being an above-average regular, a 30% chance of being a banker, and a 20% chance of being a total bust. I think reasonable minds might disagree on which of those guys should be drafted first, putting bonus demands aside entirely. The point isn’t the specific numbers (I have no idea how these guys REALLY get evaluated by the various teams in these terms), but just thinking about how difficult it can be to pick between players, even when you recognize one. he has superstar ability and the other one doesn’t.