We are five weeks into the NFL season. Yeah, it gets late early here, especially with the fantasy teams. And now the bye weeks are here. I realize this causes anxiety with many fantasy managers, but I encourage you to turn that idea on its head. It’s a perfect time to take stock of your team’s position and a perfect time to take advantage of the current form of the fantasy season.
In my book, bye weeks are a fantasy feature, not a bug. Allow me a few minutes to sell you this idea.
Trades are generally more difficult to execute at the beginning of the year. Most managers leave content on draft day, if not brimming with overconfidence. The injuries have not yet appeared. Bad beats haven’t taken root yet. Everyone has a parade in mind when they’re 0-0.
But now his rankings have some personality and his list has some kind of identity, good or bad. We’re more than a third of the way through the fantasy regular season. It’s time to identify your strengths and weaknesses and work to give yourself the best chance of getting what you need.
These are the key issues of the moment:
Step 1: Assess your chances of winning and the team situation
Look at the rankings page and be honest. Maybe you’re 4-1 somehow, but you’ve been lucky; or maybe you’re 1-4 with some heartbreaking close losses. The points scored column reflects more the strength of your team than your record. Be fair with your evaluation.
Now consider the positional form of your list. Where are you strong, where are you weak? Where are you hurt? What deep positions could you easily trade from? What shallow areas need to be addressed?
Step 2 – Take a look at the Farewell Calendar
Bye weeks, as you probably know, are not uniform in size. Sometimes there are two teams sitting down, sometimes four and sometimes six. Here’s how they play out for 2022:
Week 6: Lions, Raiders, Titans, jeans
Week 7: Bills, Vikings, Eagles, Rams
Week 8: Bosses, chargers (goodbye skinny)
Week 9: browns, jeans, broncosGiants, steelmakers49ers (see you later)
Week 10: Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Jets
Week 11: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, buccaneers
Week 12: Everyone plays
Week 13: Cardinals, Panthers (bye skinny)
Week 14: Hawks, Bears, packersColts, Saints, Commanders (see you later)
It’s more of a low-level tiebreaker than anything else, but I like to include players in a skinny bye, all else being equal. My lineups are more likely to be close to 100 percent fortified in the weeks they don’t play. On the contrary, if you include a lot of heavy players, they are more likely to rest while the rest of your roster is a chaos of unavailability.
Thin and heavy byes aren’t a reason to make proactive moves, but they’re at least worth considering while you plan ahead.
Step 3 – See which potential business partners are a match for you
Not all leagues allow trading, and some fantasy managers are nervous about trading. Paradox of Choice is a real thing. Sometimes it’s emotionally safer to stick with what you have.
But if you’re one of the giants in your league, now is the time to see if you can time the market and get some upgrades from the more desperate managers. And if you’re the guy stuck with a losing record and injuries or rest issues, you may need to consider changing things up, depending on where your team’s assessment lands.
If life goes well: Watch the teams at the bottom of the standings and pay specific attention to the teams in the bye-week jams. Maybe there’s a manager with a lousy track record and you can’t use Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. This is the perfect time to strike up a conversation. Your opponent might have an incentive to trade, while you can trade from a position of strength.
If you’re faced with that: You need to narrow your focus, pretty much treat every week like a playoff game or DFS contest. This is where you could try to pick off players who are currently injured or on a break. I need help now and will worry about November much later.
Trading partners don’t just conform to different registries; the easiest way for two teams to come to an agreement easily is when they need different positional adjustments. If your receiving room is loaded but your backfield is weak, try to find the team with the opposite problem. Challenge exchanges (a back for a back, a catcher for a catcher) are more likely to make potential partners nervous. When you’re both moving from a surplus, it’s easier on the emotions.
Conclusion: play the hand you are dealt
There’s an old saying on the Scrabble tournament circuit: Eventually, you stop trying to play bingos (the 50-point bonus words) and instead try to win the game. Bunting is rarely the +EV move in baseball, but it can be right at the end of a game when you know the next run wins. Most NFL clubs recognize that fourth-and-go from 1 is a go-for-it time, but if it’s late in the fourth period and a field goal nets you nine points or more, you might prefer to kick .
At the draft table, he wanted you to play the big inning, spinning mostly up (with the occasional floor pick thrown in). Now is the time to maneuver taking into account the specific shape of the game situation.
A team with a winning record and enviable depth might try to improve two or three good players for a superstar. You have that luxury. Teams dealing with losses and injuries might have to consider signing their best player for multiple starters.
Teams with a strong record can also afford to consider slower-developing stories, a player who may not have value now but could get it later in the year. You probably lose that luxury if you’re low in the rankings. Teams with a strong record will also begin to consider insurance season in the backfield, lining up their bell cows with their clear backups, if applicable. This might be less attractive to you if you are close to winning mode every week.
Don’t be afraid of bye weeks, players. They make the game more dynamic and more interesting. The players deserve a week off, anyway. And for the first time in the new fantasy season, your leaguemates might be itching to trade.
Now is a good time to make your move.